Abstract
Log-linear Poisson mixed models were used to study provincial malignant brain tumour
(MBT) mortality among children and adolescents in Spain (1975–1992) in order to investigate
the influence of specific socio-economic factors and to produce smoothed estimators
of standardised mortality ratios (SMRs). Interdependence between geographical units
was taken into account by including provinces as random effect terms nested with the
corresponding Autonomous Region (Spain’s administrative divisions). MBT mortality
showed a positive association with three variables: non-cancer-related infant mortality;
percentage of provincial land surface area devoted to agriculture; and industrial/construction
activity. According to the final model, SMRs increased by 4% with every 10% rise in
the area devoted to agriculture, with a 4% excess risk predicted for every increase
in non-cancer-related infant mortality of 1 per 1000 person-years, and a 7% excess
risk for contiguous categories of industrial/construction activity. By smoothing extreme
values caused by random variability, the regression model yielded a reasonable estimation
of SMRs. While infant mortality may be linked to the quality of medical care available,
the relationship seen between MBT mortality and agricultural area accords with the
excess risk reported for farmers’ offspring. Finally, industrial activity might be
regarded as a risk factor or as a marker of other conditions also associated with
these tumours.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Accepted:
December 16,
1998
Received in revised form:
November 12,
1998
Received:
July 31,
1998
Identification
Copyright
© 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
