Abstract
Background and purpose
Cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) is a rare disease with a variable outcome. The aim
of this study was to develop and validate a predictive outcome score for CVT patients.
Methods
The score was based on the 8 predictive variables of poor outcome (modified Rankin
Scale score>2) from the International Study on Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis: age >37, male, mental status disorder, coma, intracranial hemorrhage, deep CVT, CNS infection,
and malignancy. To assign a weighted index (WI), the natural logarithm of the hazard
ratio of each variable was calculated, multiplied by 10 and rounded to the nearest
integer. The individual score of each patient was the sum of the WI. The validation
sample consisted of a retrospective single center cohort of 90 CVT patients.
Results
Sixteen patients (18%) had a poor outcome. The predictive score had an area under
the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.81 (95% CI 0.71–0.90). The cut-off
score with the maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity was a score≥14 with sensitivity of 88% (81%–95%) and specificity of 70% (61%–79%). The predictive
value of a score<14 for good outcome was 96% (92%–100%), whereas the predictive value of a score≥14 for poor outcome was 39% (29%–49%).
Conclusions
This relatively simple predictive outcome score may be useful in CVT patients. A cut-off
score of 14 reliably predicts good outcome, but is less accurate in predicting poor
outcome.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Accepted:
August 26,
2008
Received in revised form:
August 24,
2008
Received:
January 5,
2008
Identification
Copyright
© 2008 Elsevier B.V. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
